Every era of media has had a moment where the ground shifted — a new technology, a new habit, a new business model — and the companies that assumed tomorrow would look like today didn't survive the transition.
That's the pattern that's repeated at least four times in the last century. It's almost certainly repeating again right now.
Before we spend the day thinking like CEOs in this industry, it's worth reviewing how change has been the one constant through the evolution of media. Click through each era below.
In business, a "moat" is a term for whatever protects a company from competitors — something that makes it hard for a rival to just copy what you do and take your customers. A castle's moat kept enemies out physically; a business moat keeps competitors out commercially. Companies spend enormous effort building and defending moats, because a moat is what turns a good product into a durable business.
In each era of media, companies built their moat by controlling the only practical way for content to reach its audience — the broadcast tower, the cable pipe, the platform. Whoever held that moat won, and had every incentive to defend it exactly as it was. The disruption that ended each era almost never attacked the moat head-on. Instead, it made the moat irrelevant, giving audiences opportunities to reach content they want, in ways the incumbents didn't even realise was possible.
The honest answer is that nobody knows for sure! We're not here to predict the next age. We're here to think like the industry leaders who must place bets on what might be just around the corner, before the answer is obvious.